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MVP Odds


Patrick Mahomes


Josh Allen


Matthew Stafford


Aaron Rodgers


Lamar Jackson


Tom Brady


Baker Mayfield


Dak Prescott


Justin Herbert


Kyler Murray


Russell Wilson


Cam Newton


Joe Burrow


Ryan Tannehill


Matt Ryan


Christian McCaffrey


Derrick Henry


Deshaun Watson


Jalen Hurts


Jameis Winston


Ryan Fitzpatrick


Sam Darnold


Taysom Hill


Trey Lance


Tua Tagovailoa


Ben Roethlisberger


Derek Carr


Justin Fields


Kirk Cousins


Trevor Lawrence


Alvin Kamara


Daniel Jones


Jared Goff


Jimmy Garoppolo


Mac Jones


Zach Wilson


Dalvin Cook


Andy Dalton


Davante Adams


DeAndre Hopkins


Drew Lock


Stefon Diggs


Teddy Bridgewater


Travis Kelce


Tyreek Hill



After reading the NFL MVP odds, should you pick Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or a longshot bet?

Since 1957 (including the AP’s Most Outstanding Player award), the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has remained the league’s biggest award for the pro league’s football players.

For new NFL bettors, it may seem challenging to figure out the MVP odds for the National Football League. Knowing the basics about these NFL odds can help you make better bets.

If you’re looking for a legit online sportsbook like, we can help increase your chances of success when betting on the NFL MVP. Learn more about how to read NFL MVP betting odds, the history of the MVP award, how to bet on NFL MVP odds, and helpful betting strategies.

What Is a Futures Bet?

A futures bet is a wager on particular events that will happen later, such as who will get the NFL’s MVP award. NFL MVP odds are listed like this:

Patrick Mahomes +400
Aaron Rodgers +600
Josh Allen +700
Dak Prescott +1,400

These bets are listed differently than a moneyline bet in which favorites are indicated with a minus sign (-), and underdogs are listed with a plus sign (+).

In this case, the MVP candidate with the best odds (favorite) has the lowest odds. Patrick Mahomes is the favorite in the scenario mentioned above.

If you have $100 to bet and pick Mahomes for NFL MVP, you’ll get a $500 total payout, including your $100 original bet and $400 profit. The higher the MVP odds are, the more money you can win.

However, it’s a bad idea to bet on an MVP candidate with +5,000 odds in September with the hope that you'll win big after the regular season ends.

Here’s why. Oddsmakers consider several factors when setting odds, including:

  • Current performance
  • Past performance
  • Offseason activities
  • Training camp

When making futures bets, it’s important to analyze odds early. The lines will move as the Super Bowl approaches.

For example, multiple game injuries can significantly lower an MVP candidate’s chances of winning the award. Sometimes you can receive a refund for a season-ending injury since you can’t win it and technically didn’t lose.

If you win an MVP bet, you can cash out after the NFL awards the MVP trophy.

NFL MVP Futures: How to Bet

When betting on a future outcome related to a sporting event, like the NFL MVP award winner, timing is a key factor. A varying degree of changes greatly affects futures bets.

In futures bets like NFL MVP, several factors can affect the movement of futures odds as the NFL season unfolds from Week 1.

Serious candidates for the MVP awards can maintain lower odds by avoiding multiple-week injuries. They’ll also need to play close to 17 games to rack up the numbers needed to have a good chance at the MVP award.

For example, in 2017, Eagles QB Carson Wentz was a top MVP candidate after leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record before a season-ending ACL injury.

The odds of major MVP candidates also drop if they start the season with multi-game underperformance. Meanwhile, the opposite effect happens when players outperform during the preseason.

Another factor is when supporting offensive players step up during the season, which can improve the odds of an MVP candidate on an offensive squad.

Betting on the NFL MVP Odds

Some of the most popular NFL bets include point spreads, over/under (totals), and moneylines that can consist of teams like:

  • Los Angeles Rams
  • New York Giants
  • Dallas Cowboys
  • Arizona Cardinals

You can also bet on the NFL action through futures bets, like who will win the MVP award. The MVP action changes as the football season continues.

You can also bet on the NFL action through futures bets, like who will win the MVP award. The MVP action changes as the football season continues.

At, get the latest pro and college football odds to help you make informed picks, including the NFL MVP.

Reading the NFL MVP Odds Market

The Associated Press (AP) gives the NFL MVP award to the top player of the NFL regular season. The AP selects the MVP candidates, then a panel of 50 sportswriters votes on them.

In most situations, the AP announces the MVP winner the night before the NFL title game.

Aaron Rodgers won his third MVP award in 2020, then announced that he didn’t want to play for Green Bay for the 2021 season.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is the top NFL betting choice for MVP. After the NFL quarterbacks, the next non-QB players listed include:

  • RB Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans)
  • RB Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers)

2021 NFL MVP Odds Report

Past Contenders

The Favorites

These players are the most likely to win the MVP NFL 2021 award.

Patrick Mahomes: The Kansas City Chiefs QB had some big plays in Super Bowl 55, even with an injured foot and shaky offensive line. Mahomes is the 2021 NFL MVP favorite as the NFL’s most talented QB.

In 2021 he’ll also have a revamped offensive line.

Aaron Rodgers: Last year, the Packers QB completed the 2020 season with a 77.2% completion percentage and high TD/INT ratio during his last five wins. The NFC team’s quarterback also had the second-highest passer rating in NFL history at 121.5.

After a rocky offseason, Rodgers still has an excellent chance to win the next NFL MVP.

Josh Allen: Allen has a chance to make a huge leap during his fourth NFL season. The Buffalo Bills QB broke various franchise records of the AFC team using his physical skills last season, including 4,544 passing yards and 50 total TDs.

Tom Brady: The 43-year-old enters the season with 7 Super Bowl wins. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ passing attack will likely improve with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown.

Russell Wilson: The Seattle Seahawks QB was winning last season’s MVP race for over half the season. However, his production plummeted under former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

This year, under a new OC, the Seahawks’ run game could set up deep passes.

The Underdogs
  • Matthew Stafford
  • Lamar Jackson
  • Dak Prescott
  • Justin Herbert
  • Kyler Murray
  • Christian McCaffrey
The Longshots
  • Ryan Tannehill
  • Derrick Henry
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Jameis Winston
  • Joe Burrow
  • Kirk Cousins
  • Dalvin Cook
  • Derek Carr
  • Alvin Kamara
  • Trevor Lawrence
  • Matt Ryan
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Jalen Hurts

NFL MVP Award: Selection, Trends, and History

How the NFL MVP Is Decided

The Associated Press gives the officially recognized award that NFL MVP futures bettors are graded on. Here’s how it works: a panel of 50 sportswriters votes at the end of the regular season and before the playoffs.

The poll’s timing ensures that the sportswriters only consider players’ performances during the regular season.

The AP announces the MVP winner one day before Super Bowl Sunday.

Since the award is for the “most valuable player,” it implies that the athlete’s absence would create the biggest negative impact on the team.

In most cases, however, other players and the team must typically provide some statistical support for a player to be named MVP.

Other players besides Rodgers were strong candidates when only considering that single player’s stats. Some examples include Tom Brady for the Bucs and Josh Allen for the Bills.

On the other hand, statistics are typically the tie-breaker among MVP candidates. For example, Rodgers tossed an NFL-high 48 TDs and threw only five INTs.

NFL MVP Betting Trends

  • A quarterback has won all of the last eight NFL MVP awards.
  • Since 2001, just three non-quarterbacks have won the award. The list includes three running backs and no wide receivers.
  • Since 2001, just one player won NFL MVP when their team didn’t win 11+ games. In 2012, RB Adrian Peterson’s Vikings won only 10 games.

NFL MVP History

NFL quarterbacks have dominated the annual award by winning over 40 times. In fact, a quarterback has won the MVP during the past eight years.

The streak includes Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers winning it for the 2020 season. Rodgers will experience free agency if still under contract with the Packers after the 2022 season.

The Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning was the last NFL player to win back-to-back MVP titles. In fact, he achieved the feat in 2003 and 2004, and again in 2008 and 2009. Manning also has the all-time record for most MVPs won (five times).

Recent NFL MVP winners include:

  • 2020 season: QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
  • 2019 season: QB Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
  • 2018 season: QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
  • 2017 season: QB Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
  • 2016 season: QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)
  • 2015 season: QB Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
  • 2014 season: QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
  • 2013 season: QB Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)
  • 2012 season: RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
  • 2011 season: QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

NFL MVP Odds: Betting Strategies

Past MVP winners share certain features that can help bettors narrow down the season’s list of potential candidates before the first regular-season game.

Bet on a Quarterback

During the past 15 NFL seasons, only two non-QB players have won the award. Meanwhile, QBs have won about two-thirds of the MVP awards since 1961.

It’s less likely that other candidates like RB Dalvin Cook and RB Christian McCaffrey will win the award.

The two non-QB winners during those years include RB Adrian Peterson with 2,000 yards rushing (2012) and RB LaDainian Tomlinson with 31 touchdowns (2007).

Last season, RB Derrick Henry rushed for 2,000+ yards and still didn’t come close to winning the MVP.

Other key factors that help determine the NFL MVP include the team wins and passing touchdowns.

During the past decade, 10 out of 11 MVPs finished among these NFL rankings in passing TDs:

  • First (five times)
  • Second (three times)
  • Third (two times)

Bet on a Winning Team

Since 2010, the Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan was the only MVP winner from an NFL team with fewer than 12 wins.

It’s a wise choice to look for players from the top NFL teams. One significant consideration is players that finish as one of the top three QBs in passing touchdowns.

These factors help short-list the likely candidates, so it’s doubtful players like Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) or Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) will win the MVP title.


1. Which NFL players have won back-to-back MVP awards?

Since the MVP award became official in 1961, only three players have won it in two consecutive years, including:

  • Brett Favre (Packers): 1995, 1996, 1997
  • Peyton Manning (Colts): 2003 (Co-MVP), 2004
  • Peyton Manning (Colts): 2008, 2009

2. Can a rookie win the NFL MVP award?

Yes. After the 1957 NFL draft, Jim Brown (Cleveland Browns) won the AP’s NFL Most Outstanding Player award as a rookie. As of August 2021, no other rookie has achieved that feat. Brown also won the Rookie of the Year award that season.

3. Who was the youngest player to win the NFL MVP?

QB Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) was the youngest NFL player to win the MVP award at 23. That was until QB Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) won the award for the 2019 season. Jackson was also 23 but a few months younger than Mahomes.

Jim Brown won the Associated Press’ precursor to the MVP, the Most Outstanding Player award, at age 21 and 22 (1957 and 1958).

4. Who won the first-ever NFL MVP Award?

In 1961, Green Bay Packers RB Paul Hornung won the first AP NFL MVP. Meanwhile, Jim Brown won the AP’s first Most Outstanding Player award in 1957.

Brown is the only NFL player to be named the “Player of the Year” and “Best Rookie” in the same season. He also participated in nine Pro Bowl games. The Pro Football Hall of Fame also inducted him in 1971.

5. Which positions have won NFL MVP awards?

Since 1961, quarterbacks have won 61 NFL MVP awards, which includes two ties. The other winning positions besides signal-callers include:

  • Running Backs (16)
  • Linebacker (1)
  • Defensive Tackle (1)
  • Kicker (1)

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